Fri, 31 Jan 2014
RUSSIA - According to preliminary official data from the Russian State Statistical Service (Rosstat), in 2013 Russia produced 91.3 million metric tons (MMT) of grain and pulses, including 52.1 MMT of wheat, 15.4 MMT of barley, 10.7 MMT of corn, and 13.1 MMT of other grains and pulses.
The total crop is 29 per cent higher than in 2012. Final official data will be published in late-February, but typically this final data has been very close to the preliminary data.
Since 1 July 2013, through the end of December 2013, Russia has exported 16.2 MMT of grain and pulses, including 2.1 MMT were exported in December.
This July – December 2013 export is 21 per cent higher than in the same period 2012. Russian domestic wheat prices have stabilized at relatively high levels by mid-November, while foreign market prices of wheat have declined, making Russia’s wheat less competitive in the foreign markets.
Industry analysts forecast significant decline in Russia’s grain exports in January – February 2014 not only because of seasonal factors (such as unfavorable weather in deep water and shallow water ports of the Southern European Russia), but also because of less-competitive prices.
Following this slowdown in exports, there will likely be a recovery in export volumes in the spring of 2014 as a result of larger grain stocks than last year and improved weather conditions.
Because of high early-season exports, FAS/Moscow has increased Russia’s grain export estimate in marketing year 2013/2014 from 20 MMT (in the November Grain and Feed Update) to 21.6 MMT, including 16.0 MMT of wheat (a 1 MMT increase), and a record 2.5 MMT of corn (a 0.5 MMT increase).
The estimate for barley exports is unchanged at 2.5 MMT, while exports of other grains and pulses are raised by 0.1 MMT to 0.6 MMT.
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